I hold two contradictory opinions at the same time. One is that the war in Ukraine has thrown us into the world of the unknown and unpredictable. The other is that the most likely outcome of this war is a “frozen conflict.”
War is a radicalizing, destabilizing factor. Anything and everything became possible when the war broke out. If the probability of civil war in Russia was close to zero on February 23rd, 2022, it then became something other than zero the following day when rockets started flying and tanks crossed the border. Terrorist attacks were possible before, but not of the type that we now see. Now it’s possible for prominent pro-Russian “war correspondents” and propagandists to be targeted, including by Russians themselves, Russians who were previously more likely to be found marching in protest against Navalny’s latest arrest than handing explosive devices over to their targets. Before the war, Russia was unlikely to collapse into pieces. Now it’s entirely possible, though no one can say for certain what probability to grant that outcome or any other one.
The truth is that all outcomes are essentially equally probable during war. Trying to predict any possibility is impossible because of the extreme number of unknown unknowns. It takes one solid breakthrough on the front to cause a rout, and that can come at any time in any place along the front. It can also just as easily not happen at all. The difference between those two options comes down to factors none of us have any insight into. A single fly landing on the barrel of a soldier’s gun can cause them to miss or hit the right target and all of a sudden a whole new world of possibilities opens up. So everything from revolution in Russia to intra-Kremlin mutiny to Ukraine’s capitulation are all on the table.
I am absolutely convinced that while this war continues, we all exist in a state of fog. There’s no way to see two steps in front of us and there’s no telling what we’re about to come across. In the future (assuming we all make it there), we’ll look back and write up all sorts of very straightforward explanations about how cause A led to effect B and how it should’ve all been very predictable. The benefit of hindsight is like a drug people can’t refuse; we’re all going to give in and start confidently explaining how it all happened. Yuval Noah Harrari wrote in his book Sapiens that human history is like a tribe of early humans walking through a tall field of grass. They can’t see what’s in front, they can’t predict when they’ll stumble into a hole or exactly where they’re going to stop and start a fire for the night. But when historians looks back at the path those humans took through the grass, all the forks in the road and choices they made, they’ll make up a narrative about the avoidance of the hole there and the wisdom of setting up camp at that spot, even though the people that were making those choices were entirely blind.
With that said, I still think that the most likely outcome for the war is the so-called “frozen conflict” outcome. It’s not just that there are a lot of modern examples that can be referenced (including the 2014 Donbass war) and it’s not just that military analysis seems to be collectively agreeing that neither side has what it takes to push the other any further. It’s that the other possibilities in which either side decisively wins are sexy, and sexy possibilities are a distraction. Propaganda on both sides really like to entertain the sexy outcome. “Russia’s army is demoralized and disorganized,” they’ll say as they try to convince themselves that this cannot possibly apply to the Ukrainian side. “There’s no way that Russia’s superior manpower won’t win out in an attrition-style war,” they’ll say as they ignore all other factors. These sexy outcomes end up serving as a type of drug as well, it’s a sort of coping mechanism that people obviously employ in order to deal with trauma. Some of them may be cynical, saying this only to feed that drug to their audience, but I’ll grant them the psychological frailty that comes with being human.
I think that the least sexy outcome, the one that literally no one wants, is the one that is most likely to happen. It’s the one where no one wins and no one is pleased. It’s the one that both sides will use to fuel revanchism. It’s the one that will end up being seriously destabilizing to the world, at the very least because frozen conflicts thaw out eventually (*cough* Armenia *cough*). Few people are willing to talk openly about this because it’s not fun. Imagining the Ukrainian counteroffensive succeeding beyond our wildest expectations is fun. Putin beheaded on the Red Square is fun. Even Lvov under Russian control can be fun for some people. But it’s not fun to come to terms with the possibility that all those thousands of deaths, thousands of injuries, endless destruction, ruined lives, pain, suffering, all of it - was for nothing at all. A stupid, senseless war with a blunt stalemate at the end. While I can imagine all sorts of other outcomes, and grant that anything is possible in the fog of war, this very sad outcome is the one I’m betting on.